Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Miller wins 57.2% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 54.5% vs Pavelski 53.0% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 69.7%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 57.9%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 63.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 62.3%
37.7%
62.3%
Miller
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Miller
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Miller
Pavelski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Miller
Pavelski
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Miller
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (589)
52.3% (560)
+3.4%
Power Play
60.9% (138)
57.5% (113)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (159)
62.5% (16)
-15.3%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Miller is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (304).
Miller shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Home / Away
Miller
Pavelski
Home
56.1% (440)
54.2% (360)
Away
53.8% (446)
52.6% (329)
By Period
Miller
Pavelski
P1
52.3%
54.5%
P2
54.7%
56.7%
P3
57.2%
50.8%
OT
66.7%
30.8%
Final 5 min
54.2%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
55.0%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 17:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 14:22 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 03:01 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |