Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.9% vs 54.2%). Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings). Miller wins 55.8% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 54.8% vs Pavelski 54.1% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 18-18 in 36 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 56.2%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 58.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 58.9%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 58.2%
41.8%
58.2%
Miller
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
18
(36 meetings)
18
18
Miller
Pavelski
Last 10: Miller 4-6 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
5
3
Miller
Pavelski
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
9
7
Miller
Pavelski
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
8
Miller
Pavelski
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
55.2% (6,648)
53.6% (8,791)
+1.6%
Power Play
57.9% (1,285)
58.2% (2,122)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (913)
50.9% (1,138)
-2.7%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Miller is 55.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,937).
Miller shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Miller
Pavelski
Home
55.9% (4,578)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
53.8% (4,268)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Miller
Pavelski
P1
54.7%
53.5%
P2
55.6%
55.2%
P3
54.0%
53.9%
OT
62.3%
52.3%
Final 5 min
55.2%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
54.9%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 17:16 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 11:47 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 07:39 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 03:01 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 05:59 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 17:58 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 16:06 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 09:51 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 15:54 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 07:51 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 04:21 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 10:22 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 17:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 14:22 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 03:01 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 3 | 00:58 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 2 | 18:01 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 2 | 17:53 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 2 | 15:55 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |