Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (60.9% vs 61.4%). Miller wins 61.7% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 59.6% vs Toews 60.3% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 59.0%
Defensive zone
Miller 50.8%
Neutral zone
Toews 57.8%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 59.0%
41.0%
59.0%
Miller
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Miller
Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
1
0
Miller
Toews
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
61.5% (540)
62.5% (696)
-1.0%
Power Play
65.6% (122)
59.6% (141)
+6.0%
Penalty Kill
47.7% (65)
46.9% (32)
+0.8%
On power play, Miller has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Miller is 61.7% vs left-shot opponents (454).
Miller shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (577).
Home / Away
Miller
Toews
Home
62.1% (372)
60.9% (435)
Away
59.7% (355)
62.0% (434)
By Period
Miller
Toews
P1
58.9%
59.8%
P2
63.9%
65.7%
P3
59.8%
58.8%
OT
60.0%
80.0%
Final 5 min
63.6%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
60.9%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 07:32 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |