Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Miller wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 54.5% vs Hayes 49.5% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 63.5%
Defensive zone
Miller 64.6%
Neutral zone
Hayes 60.1%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Miller
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Miller
Hayes
Last 6: Miller 3-3 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
2
Miller
Hayes
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
2
1
Miller
Hayes
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (589)
48.5% (557)
+7.2%
Power Play
60.9% (138)
53.3% (107)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (159)
58.3% (12)
-11.1%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Miller is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (582).
Miller shoots left. Hayes is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (439).
Home / Away
Miller
Hayes
Home
56.1% (440)
50.8% (313)
Away
53.8% (446)
48.2% (363)
By Period
Miller
Hayes
P1
52.3%
52.3%
P2
54.7%
47.7%
P3
57.2%
48.4%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.2%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
55.0%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 17:38 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 15:35 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 13:44 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 09:55 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 01:28 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 08:25 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |