Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.3% vs 57.0%). Look for Miller on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Miller wins 54.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 55.9% vs Hayes 56.3% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Miller 68.7%
Defensive zone
Miller 55.2%
Neutral zone
Miller 57.1%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 62.1%
62.1%
37.9%
Miller
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Miller
Hayes
Last 8: Miller 6-2 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
3
1
Miller
Hayes
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
2
1
Miller
Hayes
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
1
0
Miller
Hayes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,033)
56.6% (724)
-0.3%
Power Play
62.5% (253)
57.0% (79)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (175)
65.7% (35)
-18.3%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Miller is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Miller shoots left. Hayes is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (587).
Home / Away
Miller
Hayes
Home
58.6% (734)
58.0% (405)
Away
54.1% (727)
56.1% (433)
By Period
Miller
Hayes
P1
57.1%
54.7%
P2
57.0%
55.7%
P3
54.7%
60.2%
OT
62.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
58.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
56.3%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2024 | 3 | 12:29 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 2 | 16:19 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 1 | 14:57 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 1 | 08:19 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 3 | 08:08 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 2 | 18:12 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 2 | 17:54 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 2 | 05:41 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |