Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.0% vs 55.3%). Look for Miller on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Miller wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 54.5% vs Karlsson 54.9% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 52.2%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 55.0%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 51.8%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Miller
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Miller
Karlsson
Last 7: Miller 3-4 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
3
2
Miller
Karlsson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
2
Miller
Karlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (589)
55.3% (897)
+0.4%
Power Play
60.9% (138)
61.1% (113)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (159)
50.8% (132)
-3.6%
On penalty kill, Karlsson has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Miller is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (582).
Miller shoots left. Karlsson is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (752).
Home / Away
Miller
Karlsson
Home
56.1% (440)
58.6% (560)
Away
53.8% (446)
52.2% (582)
By Period
Miller
Karlsson
P1
52.3%
55.8%
P2
54.7%
55.6%
P3
57.2%
55.7%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.2%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
55.0%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 16:42 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 14:01 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 08:08 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 12:12 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 08:41 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 05:44 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 14:15 | Offensive | William Karlsson |