Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +13.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Hughes wins 39.5% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 37.4% vs Carter 49.0% (-13.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 79.3%
Defensive zone
Hughes 52.1%
Neutral zone
Hughes 68.4%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 71.4%
71.4%
28.6%
Hughes
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Hughes
Carter
Last 9: Hughes 3-6 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
3
1
Hughes
Carter
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
1
Hughes
Carter
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
0
4
Hughes
Carter
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
35.7% (569)
49.6% (242)
-13.9%
Power Play
33.3% (36)
59.1% (22)
-25.8%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
40.0% (50)
-23.3%
On power play, Carter has a +25.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Hughes is 39.5% vs right-shot opponents (306).
Hughes shoots left. Carter is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (199).
Home / Away
Hughes
Carter
Home
37.8% (333)
48.6% (173)
Away
32.4% (278)
48.9% (141)
By Period
Hughes
Carter
P1
38.8%
52.1%
P2
28.3%
47.8%
P3
38.6%
46.6%
OT
42.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
31.7%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
35.4%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2021 | 3 | 07:20 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 3 | 07:08 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 07:07 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 1 | 03:43 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 3 | 17:55 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 1 | 17:46 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 1 | 00:41 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 20, 2021 | 2 | 09:07 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Apr 20, 2021 | 2 | 01:25 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |