Scouting Report
Leo Carlsson holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 33.9% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 39.8% vs Carlsson 45.0% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 58.4%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 57.7%
Neutral zone
Hughes 58.0%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 58.1%
58.1%
41.9%
Hughes
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Hughes
Carlsson
Last 5: Hughes 2-3 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
0
Hughes
Carlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
3
Hughes
Carlsson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
36.8% (266)
45.5% (661)
-8.7%
Power Play
14.3% (7)
46.3% (82)
-32.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
33.3% (84)
+0.0%
On power play, Carlsson has a +32.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Hughes is 33.9% vs left-shot opponents (189).
Hughes shoots left. Carlsson is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Home / Away
Hughes
Carlsson
Home
35.1% (148)
42.5% (428)
Away
37.4% (131)
46.4% (399)
By Period
Hughes
Carlsson
P1
43.0%
45.4%
P2
28.7%
39.7%
P3
35.2%
48.5%
Final 5 min
28.6%
39.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.2%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 06:34 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 02:39 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |