Scouting Report
Leo Carlsson holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hughes on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 37.9% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 39.2% vs Carlsson 42.4% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 52.8%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 80.7%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 74.9%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 78.3%
21.7%
78.3%
Hughes
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Hughes
Carlsson
Last 5: Hughes 4-1 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
1
Hughes
Carlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
0
Hughes
Carlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
37.9% (623)
41.8% (648)
-3.9%
Power Play
33.3% (33)
37.3% (51)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
38.7% (31)
-2.3%
On power play, Carlsson has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Hughes is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Hughes shoots left. Carlsson is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (545).
Home / Away
Hughes
Carlsson
Home
36.6% (314)
44.5% (362)
Away
38.5% (353)
38.3% (368)
By Period
Hughes
Carlsson
P1
36.4%
46.3%
P2
35.6%
35.1%
P3
41.8%
43.9%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
36.4%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
37.6%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 01:49 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 01:42 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 05:26 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |