Scouting Report
Leo Carlsson holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hughes on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 34.9% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.6% vs Carlsson 41.2% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Hughes leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 57.0%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 80.6%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 68.5%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 67.0%
33.0%
67.0%
Hughes
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Hughes
Carlsson
Last 10: Hughes 6-4 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
0
Hughes
Carlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
1
Hughes
Carlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
2
3
Hughes
Carlsson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,887)
41.0% (1,844)
-5.0%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
42.9% (154)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
35.0% (120)
-4.0%
On even strength, Carlsson has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Hughes is 34.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,931).
Hughes shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,479).
Home / Away
Hughes
Carlsson
Home
36.8% (1,670)
42.2% (1,044)
Away
35.4% (1,483)
39.4% (1,074)
By Period
Hughes
Carlsson
P1
36.9%
43.3%
P2
33.6%
36.5%
P3
38.1%
43.2%
OT
37.5%
40.7%
Final 5 min
34.2%
40.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.1%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 06:34 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 02:39 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 01:49 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 01:42 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 05:26 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |