Scouting Report
Pontus Holmberg holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Holmberg on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Hughes wins 34.9% vs left-shot opponents — Holmberg shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.6% vs Holmberg 46.2% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 79.3%
Defensive zone
Holmberg 65.0%
Neutral zone
Hughes 60.7%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 64.5%
64.5%
35.5%
Hughes
Holmberg
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Hughes
Holmberg
Last 8: Hughes 3-5 Holmberg
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
1
Hughes
Holmberg
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Holmberg
0
1
Hughes
Holmberg
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Holmberg
1
3
Hughes
Holmberg
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Holmberg
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,887)
45.5% (673)
-9.5%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
52.4% (21)
-13.6%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
45.9% (61)
-14.9%
On penalty kill, Holmberg has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Holmberg shoots left. Hughes is 34.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,931).
Hughes shoots left. Holmberg is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (507).
Home / Away
Hughes
Holmberg
Home
36.8% (1,670)
46.7% (418)
Away
35.4% (1,483)
44.5% (337)
By Period
Hughes
Holmberg
P1
36.9%
53.5%
P2
33.6%
41.1%
P3
38.1%
42.5%
OT
37.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
34.2%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.1%
Holmberg
40.0%▼
46.5%
45.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:02 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 05:00 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 18:55 | Neutral | Pontus Holmberg |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 15:20 | Neutral | Pontus Holmberg |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 13:22 | Neutral | Pontus Holmberg |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 04:11 | Offensive | Pontus Holmberg |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 02:03 | Defensive | Pontus Holmberg |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 1 | 02:49 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |