Scouting Report
Pontus Holmberg holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Holmberg on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 37.9% vs left-shot opponents — Holmberg shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 39.2% vs Holmberg 49.1% (-11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 84.6%
Defensive zone
Hughes 56.1%
Neutral zone
Hughes 70.1%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 74.3%
74.3%
25.7%
Hughes
Holmberg
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Hughes
Holmberg
Last 7: Hughes 2-5 Holmberg
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
1
Hughes
Holmberg
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Holmberg
0
1
Hughes
Holmberg
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Holmberg
0
3
Hughes
Holmberg
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Holmberg
Edge
Even Strength
37.9% (623)
49.0% (245)
-11.1%
Power Play
33.3% (33)
33.3% (3)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
48.6% (37)
-12.2%
On penalty kill, Holmberg has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Holmberg shoots left. Hughes is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Hughes shoots left. Holmberg is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
Hughes
Holmberg
Home
36.6% (314)
50.3% (147)
Away
38.5% (353)
47.1% (138)
By Period
Hughes
Holmberg
P1
36.4%
59.2%
P2
35.6%
40.0%
P3
41.8%
46.9%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
36.4%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
37.6%
Holmberg
40.0%▼
46.5%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:02 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 05:00 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 18:55 | Neutral | Pontus Holmberg |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 15:20 | Neutral | Pontus Holmberg |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 13:22 | Neutral | Pontus Holmberg |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 04:11 | Offensive | Pontus Holmberg |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 02:03 | Defensive | Pontus Holmberg |