Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +17.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Hughes wins 33.8% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 38.0% vs Aho 52.2% (-17.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 69.6%
Defensive zone
Hughes 59.7%
Neutral zone
Hughes 63.9%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 63.4%
63.4%
36.6%
Hughes
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Hughes
Aho
Last 8: Hughes 3-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Hughes
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
3
4
Hughes
Aho
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
34.5% (342)
51.6% (819)
-17.1%
Power Play
42.9% (7)
58.4% (173)
-15.5%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
46.3% (67)
-21.3%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +21.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Hughes is 33.8% vs left-shot opponents (210).
Hughes shoots left. Aho is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (674).
Home / Away
Hughes
Aho
Home
32.6% (187)
53.9% (568)
Away
36.7% (166)
50.7% (491)
By Period
Hughes
Aho
P1
33.9%
55.4%
P2
34.2%
51.2%
P3
36.5%
50.9%
OT
0.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
29.7%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
34.0%▼
36.5%
34.6%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2022 | 3 | 12:48 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 3 | 03:18 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 17:12 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 1 | 11:49 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 1 | 03:38 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 1 | 19:06 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |