Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +17.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (92% H2H, 13 meetings). Hughes wins 37.9% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 39.2% vs Aho 54.9% (-17.7%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 18-6 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 92.0%
Defensive zone
Hughes 92.1%
Neutral zone
Hughes 94.1%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 93.2%
93.2%
6.8%
Hughes
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
18
(24 meetings)
6
18
Hughes
Aho
Last 10: Hughes 1-9 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Hughes
Aho
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
3
Hughes
Aho
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
1
12
Hughes
Aho
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
37.9% (623)
54.5% (870)
-16.6%
Power Play
33.3% (33)
62.4% (266)
-29.1%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
37.1% (62)
-0.7%
On power play, Aho has a +29.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Hughes is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Hughes shoots left. Aho is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (805).
Home / Away
Hughes
Aho
Home
36.6% (314)
53.9% (603)
Away
38.5% (353)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Hughes
Aho
P1
36.4%
54.1%
P2
35.6%
55.0%
P3
41.8%
57.4%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
36.4%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
37.6%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 11:34 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 06:28 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 01:05 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 18:18 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 11:04 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 06:36 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 06:30 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 04:28 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 03:59 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 1 | 13:36 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 1 | 13:08 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 1 | 04:35 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 08:47 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 1 | 16:12 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 2 | 17:44 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 2 | 08:09 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 1 | 17:06 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 1 | 07:33 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 1 | 00:20 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |