Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +16.1% FO% edge overall. Hughes wins 35.4% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 37.9% vs Aho 51.2% (-16.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 68.1%
Defensive zone
Hughes 56.0%
Neutral zone
Hughes 64.6%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 63.3%
63.3%
36.7%
Hughes
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Hughes
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Hughes
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Hughes
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Hughes
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
34.9% (444)
48.5% (778)
-13.6%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
63.4% (191)
-13.4%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
50.8% (65)
-17.5%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +17.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Hughes is 35.4% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Hughes shoots left. Aho is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Hughes
Aho
Home
37.4% (235)
51.3% (530)
Away
33.2% (229)
51.4% (504)
By Period
Hughes
Aho
P1
37.1%
50.0%
P2
33.7%
51.3%
P3
34.8%
52.1%
OT
100.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
32.7%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
34.0%▼
36.5%
35.3%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2023 | 3 | 06:30 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 12, 2023 | 1 | 08:21 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 2 | 01:07 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 3 | 02:58 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |