Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs McCarron 52.2% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 76.3%
Defensive zone
McCarron 73.0%
Neutral zone
McBain 51.2%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
McBain
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
McBain
McCarron
Last 8: McBain 4-4 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McBain
McCarron
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
1
0
McBain
McCarron
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
2
3
McBain
McCarron
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (504)
52.5% (562)
+0.1%
Power Play
50.0% (12)
22.2% (9)
+27.8%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (42)
54.3% (164)
-21.0%
On power play, McBain has a +27.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. McBain is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (245).
McBain shoots left. McCarron is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (525).
Home / Away
McBain
McCarron
Home
51.8% (251)
52.5% (373)
Away
50.5% (307)
52.5% (362)
By Period
McBain
McCarron
P1
50.9%
58.9%
P2
53.9%
49.2%
P3
48.1%
49.4%
OT
100.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
52.0%▲
49.5%
51.1%
McCarron
32.0%▼
49.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 07:42 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 17:33 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 14:47 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 11:13 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 03:43 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 02:11 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 09:51 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 05:57 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |