Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). McBain wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs McCarron 52.5% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 79.5%
Defensive zone
McCarron 73.5%
Neutral zone
McBain 51.1%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 55.1%
55.1%
44.9%
McBain
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
McBain
McCarron
Last 8: McBain 4-4 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McBain
McCarron
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
1
0
McBain
McCarron
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
2
3
McBain
McCarron
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (545)
53.1% (672)
-1.0%
Power Play
57.1% (14)
18.2% (11)
+38.9%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (46)
53.7% (205)
-16.7%
On power play, McBain has a +38.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. McBain is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (256).
McBain shoots left. McCarron is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
McBain
McCarron
Home
52.2% (289)
52.8% (477)
Away
50.0% (316)
52.8% (411)
By Period
McBain
McCarron
P1
52.6%
56.5%
P2
53.6%
53.2%
P3
47.1%
49.0%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
51.1%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 07:42 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 17:33 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 14:47 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 11:13 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 03:43 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 02:11 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 09:51 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 05:57 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |