Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for McBain on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McBain wins 45.6% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 45.9% vs Backlund 50.3% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
McBain leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 64.2%
Defensive zone
Backlund 85.2%
Neutral zone
Backlund 72.0%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 74.4%
25.6%
74.4%
McBain
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
McBain
Backlund
Last 10: McBain 7-3 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McBain
2
0
McBain
Backlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
2
1
McBain
Backlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McBain
3
2
McBain
Backlund
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (568)
51.0% (1,205)
-4.7%
Power Play
37.5% (8)
59.3% (108)
-21.8%
Penalty Kill
37.8% (74)
42.3% (234)
-4.5%
On power play, Backlund has a +21.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. McBain is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (441).
McBain shoots left. Backlund is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,012).
Home / Away
McBain
Backlund
Home
50.6% (330)
51.2% (782)
Away
39.7% (320)
49.4% (765)
By Period
McBain
Backlund
P1
45.4%
51.5%
P2
44.5%
49.8%
P3
45.7%
49.9%
Final 5 min
48.0%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
45.2%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 18:48 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 12:18 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 09:31 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 08:53 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 17:19 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack McBain |