Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McBain wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 50.7%
Defensive zone
McBain 61.5%
Neutral zone
McBain 58.1%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
McBain
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
McBain
O'Reilly
Last 5: McBain 2-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
McBain
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McBain
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (545)
55.4% (826)
-3.3%
Power Play
57.1% (14)
57.9% (221)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (46)
50.4% (129)
-13.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. McBain is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (349).
McBain shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
McBain
O'Reilly
Home
52.2% (289)
55.8% (579)
Away
50.0% (316)
54.9% (597)
By Period
McBain
O'Reilly
P1
52.6%
57.7%
P2
53.6%
54.8%
P3
47.1%
54.3%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
51.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 16:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 12:50 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 18:47 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 11:37 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 08:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |