Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 46.7% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 14-12 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
McBain 61.2%
Defensive zone
McBain 64.9%
Neutral zone
McBain 69.7%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
McBain
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
14
(26 meetings)
12
14
McBain
O'Reilly
Last 10: McBain 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
6
9
McBain
O'Reilly
15 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McBain
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McBain
5
4
McBain
O'Reilly
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (2,298)
56.2% (15,260)
-8.2%
Power Play
49.0% (51)
58.8% (3,445)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
35.7% (308)
51.4% (2,811)
-15.7%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. McBain is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,667).
McBain shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
McBain
O'Reilly
Home
49.0% (1,359)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
44.0% (1,298)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
McBain
O'Reilly
P1
46.7%
55.6%
P2
47.5%
57.0%
P3
45.6%
55.1%
OT
37.5%
62.2%
Final 5 min
48.8%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
46.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 16:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 12:50 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 18:47 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 11:37 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 08:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 17:15 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 16:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 13:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 01:25 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 19:49 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 19:02 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 18:44 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 18:30 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 07:42 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 04:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 17:19 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 19:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 1 | 12:06 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 1 | 03:13 | Neutral | Jack McBain |