Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +22.8% FO% edge overall. McBain wins 28.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 41.9% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-22.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 84.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 83.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 86.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 86.5%
13.5%
86.5%
McBain
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
McBain
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: McBain
2
0
McBain
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
37.2% (86)
56.6% (1,064)
-19.4%
Penalty Kill
17.6% (17)
54.0% (261)
-36.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +36.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. McBain is 28.8% vs left-shot opponents (59).
McBain shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
McBain
O'Reilly
Home
33.8% (68)
54.9% (801)
Away
34.3% (35)
58.7% (784)
By Period
McBain
O'Reilly
P1
40.6%
58.0%
P2
40.5%
56.7%
P3
20.6%
55.4%
Final 5 min
35.7%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
34.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2022 | 1 | 12:06 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 1 | 03:13 | Neutral | Jack McBain |