Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. McBain wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 44.7% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-11.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 70.0%
Defensive zone
McBain 74.7%
Neutral zone
McBain 74.4%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 71.5%
71.5%
28.5%
McBain
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
McBain
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
McBain
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
McBain
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (675)
56.1% (690)
-10.8%
Power Play
50.0% (16)
64.6% (96)
-14.6%
Penalty Kill
37.6% (149)
45.9% (109)
-8.3%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. McBain is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (502).
McBain shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
McBain
O'Reilly
Home
45.5% (437)
58.3% (408)
Away
42.4% (403)
53.6% (487)
By Period
McBain
O'Reilly
P1
43.5%
57.7%
P2
44.0%
54.8%
P3
45.0%
55.2%
OT
33.3%
45.5%
Final 5 min
43.6%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
44.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 04:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 17:19 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 19:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |