Scouting Report
Jack McBain holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. McBain wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs Aho 50.0% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 61.7%
Defensive zone
McBain 70.0%
Neutral zone
McBain 56.5%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
McBain
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
McBain
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McBain
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
1
0
McBain
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (545)
49.9% (851)
+2.2%
Power Play
57.1% (14)
53.5% (144)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (46)
43.3% (60)
-6.3%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. McBain is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (349).
McBain shoots left. Aho is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
McBain
Aho
Home
52.2% (289)
53.2% (554)
Away
50.0% (316)
46.5% (501)
By Period
McBain
Aho
P1
52.6%
49.1%
P2
53.6%
50.8%
P3
47.1%
49.7%
OT
50.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
54.1%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
51.1%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 15:45 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 18:59 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 08:47 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |