Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McBain on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 46.7% vs Aho 51.2% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
McBain leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 80.5%
Defensive zone
McBain 64.6%
Neutral zone
Aho 58.6%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 64.7%
35.3%
64.7%
McBain
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
8
(17 meetings)
9
8
McBain
Aho
Last 10: McBain 4-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
4
5
McBain
Aho
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
3
1
McBain
Aho
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
McBain
Aho
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (2,298)
50.1% (6,619)
-2.1%
Power Play
49.0% (51)
58.9% (1,310)
-9.9%
Penalty Kill
35.7% (308)
46.3% (464)
-10.6%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. McBain is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,667).
McBain shoots left. Aho is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (5,305).
Home / Away
McBain
Aho
Home
49.0% (1,359)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
44.0% (1,298)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
McBain
Aho
P1
46.7%
51.1%
P2
47.5%
52.0%
P3
45.6%
50.7%
OT
37.5%
48.9%
Final 5 min
48.8%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
46.6%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 15:45 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 18:59 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 08:47 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 02:16 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 16, 2024 | 1 | 09:19 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 16, 2024 | 1 | 09:12 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 16, 2024 | 1 | 02:57 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 08:05 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 17:04 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 3 | 04:33 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 2 | 18:03 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 2 | 09:57 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 2 | 08:25 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 1 | 14:14 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 1 | 11:27 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 1 | 00:28 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 07:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |