Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McBain on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McBain wins 45.6% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 45.9% vs Aho 53.8% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 72.5%
Defensive zone
McBain 69.6%
Neutral zone
McBain 52.4%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 57.7%
57.7%
42.3%
McBain
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
McBain
Aho
Last 5: McBain 2-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
McBain
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
2
1
McBain
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
McBain
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (568)
51.2% (785)
-4.9%
Power Play
37.5% (8)
63.8% (213)
-26.3%
Penalty Kill
37.8% (74)
57.9% (57)
-20.1%
On power play, Aho has a +26.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. McBain is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (441).
McBain shoots left. Aho is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Home / Away
McBain
Aho
Home
50.6% (330)
54.9% (548)
Away
39.7% (320)
53.3% (507)
By Period
McBain
Aho
P1
45.4%
52.8%
P2
44.5%
58.9%
P3
45.7%
50.6%
Final 5 min
48.0%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
45.2%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2024 | 1 | 09:19 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 16, 2024 | 1 | 09:12 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 16, 2024 | 1 | 02:57 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 08:05 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 17:04 | Defensive | Jack McBain |