Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). McBain wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs Hertl 57.2% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 70.0%
Defensive zone
McBain 91.4%
Neutral zone
McBain 76.7%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 71.6%
71.6%
28.4%
McBain
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
McBain
Hertl
Last 8: McBain 1-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
5
McBain
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
McBain
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (545)
58.1% (823)
-6.0%
Power Play
57.1% (14)
56.2% (265)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (46)
62.9% (35)
-25.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +25.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McBain is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (349).
McBain shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
McBain
Hertl
Home
52.2% (289)
59.7% (561)
Away
50.0% (316)
55.9% (562)
By Period
McBain
Hertl
P1
52.6%
51.6%
P2
53.6%
63.8%
P3
47.1%
58.6%
OT
50.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
54.1%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
51.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 09:34 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 16:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 07:09 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 14:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 08:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 08:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 04:48 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 10:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |