Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +12.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McBain on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). McBain wins 45.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 45.9% vs Hertl 56.8% (-12.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 62.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 51.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 50.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 60.8%
39.2%
60.8%
McBain
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
McBain
Hertl
Last 6: McBain 3-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McBain
3
2
McBain
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
McBain
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (568)
57.0% (718)
-10.7%
Power Play
37.5% (8)
64.9% (188)
-27.4%
Penalty Kill
37.8% (74)
44.2% (77)
-6.4%
On power play, Hertl has a +27.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McBain is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (441).
McBain shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
McBain
Hertl
Home
50.6% (330)
59.2% (463)
Away
39.7% (320)
56.0% (520)
By Period
McBain
Hertl
P1
45.4%
56.3%
P2
44.5%
55.4%
P3
45.7%
60.5%
Final 5 min
48.0%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
45.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 04:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 15:29 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 15:19 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 19:21 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 12:25 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 05:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |