Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 49.9% vs Hertl 55.4% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 65.1%
Defensive zone
McBain 72.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 53.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 59.4%
40.6%
59.4%
McBain
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
McBain
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
McBain
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McBain
1
0
McBain
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (424)
54.1% (717)
-2.9%
Power Play
46.2% (13)
61.9% (210)
-15.7%
Penalty Kill
27.3% (22)
58.1% (31)
-30.8%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +30.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McBain is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (316).
McBain shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
McBain
Hertl
Home
53.6% (235)
58.1% (492)
Away
46.0% (224)
53.6% (466)
By Period
McBain
Hertl
P1
48.6%
57.1%
P2
50.9%
54.0%
P3
50.0%
56.6%
Final 5 min
55.1%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
49.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 07:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 3 | 01:54 | Neutral | Jack McBain |