Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McBain wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 44.7% vs Hertl 54.5% (-10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 77.3%
Defensive zone
McBain 78.5%
Neutral zone
McBain 58.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 55.0%
45.0%
55.0%
McBain
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
McBain
Hertl
Last 5: McBain 2-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
McBain
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
2
0
McBain
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (675)
54.1% (1,117)
-8.8%
Power Play
50.0% (16)
59.8% (296)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
37.6% (149)
34.4% (32)
+3.2%
On power play, Hertl has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McBain is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (502).
McBain shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
McBain
Hertl
Home
45.5% (437)
54.3% (709)
Away
42.4% (403)
55.3% (736)
By Period
McBain
Hertl
P1
43.5%
51.6%
P2
44.0%
53.6%
P3
45.0%
58.6%
OT
33.3%
45.5%
Final 5 min
43.6%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
44.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2023 | 3 | 09:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 3 | 06:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 03:52 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 1 | 08:01 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 3 | 02:10 | Defensive | Jack McBain |