Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Kerfoot on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kerfoot wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 45.3% vs Evans 49.8% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kerfoot 68.2%
Defensive zone
Evans 70.8%
Neutral zone
Evans 55.1%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 55.2%
44.8%
55.2%
Kerfoot
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Kerfoot
Evans
Last 6: Kerfoot 3-3 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kerfoot
Evans
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
2
1
Kerfoot
Evans
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
0
1
Kerfoot
Evans
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (131)
51.3% (739)
-6.3%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
53.3% (15)
+46.7%
Penalty Kill
34.8% (46)
43.0% (172)
-8.2%
On power play, Kerfoot has a +46.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Kerfoot is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (81).
Kerfoot shoots left. Evans is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (667).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
Evans
Home
49.5% (107)
52.1% (503)
Away
32.4% (71)
47.0% (423)
By Period
Kerfoot
Evans
P1
38.2%
50.5%
P2
47.4%
47.7%
P3
40.4%
51.3%
Final 5 min
33.3%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
52.0%▼
53.5%
42.7%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2021 | 2 | 04:41 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 13, 2021 | 2 | 04:24 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Oct 13, 2021 | 2 | 01:47 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Oct 13, 2021 | 2 | 01:45 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Oct 13, 2021 | 1 | 07:48 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 13, 2021 | 1 | 00:27 | Neutral | Jake Evans |