Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Domi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs Domi 50.2% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Domi 74.0%
Defensive zone
Evans 87.5%
Neutral zone
Evans 61.4%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 54.7%
54.7%
45.3%
Evans
Domi
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Evans
Domi
Last 6: Evans 3-3 Domi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
1
Evans
Domi
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Domi
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
2
1
Evans
Domi
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Domi
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
49.7% (499)
+4.7%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
56.8% (44)
+9.9%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
0.0% (1)
+48.1%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +48.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Domi shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Evans shoots right. Domi is 44.8% vs right-shot opponents (172).
Home / Away
Evans
Domi
Home
55.1% (541)
51.0% (298)
Away
50.8% (581)
49.2% (246)
By Period
Evans
Domi
P1
51.8%
54.8%
P2
53.3%
48.9%
P3
53.8%
46.4%
Final 5 min
51.1%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Domi
54.0%▲
52.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 18:21 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 03:44 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 08:33 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 08:27 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 19:43 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 05:16 | Defensive | Jake Evans |