Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Domi on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Domi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Domi 50.9% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Domi 79.8%
Defensive zone
Evans 81.0%
Neutral zone
Evans 50.1%
Result
Max Domi favored at 53.9%
46.1%
53.9%
Evans
Domi
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Evans
Domi
Last 7: Evans 3-4 Domi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Domi
1
2
Evans
Domi
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
0
Evans
Domi
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Domi
0
2
Evans
Domi
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Domi
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
50.4% (254)
+5.8%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
59.3% (27)
+10.7%
On power play, Evans has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Domi shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Evans shoots right. Domi is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (92).
Home / Away
Evans
Domi
Home
55.3% (374)
50.0% (174)
Away
57.1% (317)
53.3% (107)
By Period
Evans
Domi
P1
58.5%
45.7%
P2
55.7%
51.5%
P3
53.9%
57.3%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.3%
38.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Domi
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 13:44 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 06:05 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 04:14 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 01:21 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 04:31 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 05:51 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 05:39 | Neutral | Max Domi |