Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.9% vs 52.0%). Evans wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Bäck shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs Bäck 51.3% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 52.8%
Defensive zone
Evans 81.6%
Neutral zone
Evans 65.0%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 72.0%
72.0%
28.0%
Evans
Bäck
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Evans
Bäck
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Bäck
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
0
Evans
Bäck
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Bäck
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
55.9% (143)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
33.3% (30)
+14.8%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bäck shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Evans shoots right. Bäck is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (80).
Home / Away
Evans
Bäck
Home
55.1% (541)
47.6% (82)
Away
50.8% (581)
56.0% (91)
By Period
Evans
Bäck
P1
51.8%
54.3%
P2
53.3%
48.1%
P3
53.8%
56.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
46.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Bäck
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 15:06 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 02:17 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:22 | Offensive | Jake Evans |