Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Zacha 51.7% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 80.5%
Defensive zone
Evans 58.0%
Neutral zone
Zacha 58.5%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Evans
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Evans
Zacha
Last 8: Evans 3-5 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Evans
Zacha
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Evans
Zacha
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
2
Evans
Zacha
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
53.3% (646)
+2.9%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
53.0% (100)
+17.0%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
38.9% (72)
+16.5%
On power play, Evans has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Evans shoots right. Zacha is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Evans
Zacha
Home
55.3% (374)
51.7% (410)
Away
57.1% (317)
52.2% (408)
By Period
Evans
Zacha
P1
58.5%
57.7%
P2
55.7%
48.9%
P3
53.9%
50.2%
OT
66.7%
35.7%
Final 5 min
54.3%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 17:42 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 15:41 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 15:20 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 13:15 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 17:14 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 19:39 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 08:12 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 00:52 | Defensive | Jake Evans |