Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 53.4% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 53.9% vs Zacha 51.9% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 64.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 80.8%
Neutral zone
Evans 57.1%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 57.7%
57.7%
42.3%
Evans
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Evans
Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Evans
Zacha
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Zacha
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (349)
53.7% (497)
-0.1%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
54.8% (84)
+15.2%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (161)
37.5% (64)
+18.4%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Evans is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Evans shoots right. Zacha is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (274).
Home / Away
Evans
Zacha
Home
54.1% (290)
51.0% (335)
Away
55.2% (230)
53.5% (310)
By Period
Evans
Zacha
P1
60.1%
60.0%
P2
53.5%
48.1%
P3
50.3%
48.8%
OT
33.3%
44.4%
Final 5 min
53.8%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
57.0%
54.6%
Zacha
48.0%▼
51.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 19:39 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 08:12 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 00:52 | Defensive | Jake Evans |