Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 52.0%). Look for Chartier on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.0% vs Chartier 51.5% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Chartier 56.4%
Defensive zone
Evans 71.2%
Neutral zone
Chartier 56.3%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
Evans
Chartier
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Evans
Chartier
Last 8: Evans 4-4 Chartier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Chartier
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
3
0
Evans
Chartier
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Chartier
0
4
Evans
Chartier
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Chartier
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (807)
54.2% (225)
+0.2%
Power Play
55.0% (20)
75.0% (4)
-20.0%
Penalty Kill
46.1% (310)
43.3% (67)
+2.8%
On power play, Chartier has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Chartier shoots left. Evans is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (855).
Evans shoots right. Chartier is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (96).
Home / Away
Evans
Chartier
Home
53.7% (581)
49.5% (202)
Away
50.5% (556)
57.4% (94)
By Period
Evans
Chartier
P1
54.6%
51.6%
P2
50.0%
49.5%
P3
52.3%
54.6%
Final 5 min
49.6%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Chartier
60.0%▲
50.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 17:37 | Neutral | Rourke Chartier |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 16:56 | Neutral | Rourke Chartier |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 09:07 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 3 | 15:16 | Neutral | Rourke Chartier |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 2 | 09:51 | Neutral | Rourke Chartier |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 2 | 05:54 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 1 | 12:07 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 1 | 11:59 | Defensive | Jake Evans |