Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 51.7% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 62.6%
Defensive zone
Evans 64.8%
Neutral zone
Evans 55.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Evans
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Evans
O'Reilly
Last 7: Evans 3-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Evans
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
3
0
Evans
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (483)
56.1% (690)
-1.6%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
64.6% (96)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (155)
45.9% (109)
-2.0%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Evans is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (495).
Evans shoots right. O'Reilly is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Home / Away
Evans
O'Reilly
Home
49.4% (336)
58.3% (408)
Away
54.8% (314)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Evans
O'Reilly
P1
55.8%
57.7%
P2
51.7%
54.8%
P3
48.2%
55.2%
OT
100.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
49.0%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
52.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 11:12 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 08:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 07:56 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 05:00 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 18:35 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 09:31 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 1 | 11:56 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |