Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (94% H2H, 18 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 20-15 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 92.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 54.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 73.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 71.0%
29.0%
71.0%
Evans
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
15
(35 meetings)
20
15
Evans
O'Reilly
Last 10: Evans 8-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
12
Evans
O'Reilly
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
17
1
Evans
O'Reilly
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Evans
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (3,740)
56.2% (15,290)
-2.5%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
58.7% (3,457)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,228)
51.4% (2,826)
-4.3%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,738).
Evans shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,705).
Home / Away
Evans
O'Reilly
Home
53.3% (2,621)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
51.0% (2,418)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
Evans
O'Reilly
P1
54.0%
55.6%
P2
50.9%
57.0%
P3
52.0%
55.0%
OT
46.5%
62.2%
Final 5 min
50.5%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
52.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 07:46 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 17:54 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 19:44 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 19:40 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:25 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 17:31 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 13:20 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 07:19 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 18:10 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 17:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 1 | 16:21 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 3 | 17:19 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 05:29 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 04:20 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 04:12 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 04:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 01:21 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 1 | 03:23 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 16:07 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |