Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Carrick 53.7% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carrick 61.2%
Defensive zone
Carrick 51.3%
Neutral zone
Carrick 56.9%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 56.9%
43.1%
56.9%
Evans
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Evans
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Evans
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
54.9% (428)
+1.3%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
66.7% (3)
+3.3%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
50.0% (50)
+5.4%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Evans is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (175).
Evans shoots right. Carrick is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Home / Away
Evans
Carrick
Home
55.3% (374)
58.2% (225)
Away
57.1% (317)
51.2% (256)
By Period
Evans
Carrick
P1
58.5%
55.2%
P2
55.7%
52.8%
P3
53.9%
55.4%
Final 5 min
54.3%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Carrick
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 14:57 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 04:20 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |