Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.0% vs Carrick 53.0% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 50.0%
Defensive zone
Carrick 51.4%
Neutral zone
Carrick 50.9%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Evans
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Evans
Carrick
Last 5: Evans 2-3 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
1
Evans
Carrick
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Evans
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (807)
53.9% (521)
+0.5%
Power Play
55.0% (20)
57.1% (35)
-2.1%
Penalty Kill
46.1% (310)
51.5% (229)
-5.4%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Evans is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (282).
Evans shoots right. Carrick is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (223).
Home / Away
Evans
Carrick
Home
53.7% (581)
52.7% (408)
Away
50.5% (556)
54.1% (377)
By Period
Evans
Carrick
P1
54.6%
51.4%
P2
50.0%
56.6%
P3
52.3%
52.1%
Final 5 min
49.6%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 06:01 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 13:53 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 14:34 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 02:18 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 02:08 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |