Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs Carrick 53.7% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carrick 54.3%
Defensive zone
Evans 52.8%
Neutral zone
Carrick 61.1%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 61.1%
38.9%
61.1%
Evans
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Evans
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
2
1
Evans
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
53.8% (654)
+0.6%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
0.0% (2)
+66.7%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
63.9% (36)
-15.8%
On power play, Evans has a +66.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Evans is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (284).
Evans shoots right. Carrick is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (189).
Home / Away
Evans
Carrick
Home
55.1% (541)
50.0% (328)
Away
50.8% (581)
58.0% (364)
By Period
Evans
Carrick
P1
51.8%
56.7%
P2
53.3%
51.1%
P3
53.8%
54.8%
Final 5 min
51.1%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2025 | 3 | 12:52 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 2 | 02:22 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 16:19 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |