Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 56.8% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 51.7% vs Carrick 49.5% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 57.3%
Defensive zone
Evans 52.5%
Neutral zone
Evans 55.6%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 56.1%
56.1%
43.9%
Evans
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Evans
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Evans
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
2
0
Evans
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (483)
49.2% (307)
+5.3%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
66.7% (6)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (155)
48.2% (56)
-4.3%
On power play, Carrick has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Evans is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (155).
Evans shoots right. Carrick is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (81).
Home / Away
Evans
Carrick
Home
49.4% (336)
50.3% (175)
Away
54.8% (314)
48.5% (194)
By Period
Evans
Carrick
P1
55.8%
41.0%
P2
51.7%
51.2%
P3
48.2%
55.3%
Final 5 min
49.0%
37.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.0%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 19:51 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 03:23 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 03:11 | Neutral | Jake Evans |