Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 51.7% vs Hertl 54.5% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 83.1%
Defensive zone
Evans 79.9%
Neutral zone
Evans 53.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Evans
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Evans
Hertl
Last 5: Evans 2-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Evans
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (483)
54.1% (1,117)
+0.4%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
59.8% (296)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (155)
34.4% (32)
+9.5%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Evans is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (495).
Evans shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Evans
Hertl
Home
49.4% (336)
54.3% (709)
Away
54.8% (314)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Evans
Hertl
P1
55.8%
51.6%
P2
51.7%
53.6%
P3
48.2%
58.6%
OT
100.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
49.0%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2022 | 3 | 09:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 3 | 08:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 3 | 02:29 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 2 | 04:42 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 1 | 01:33 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |