Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs Hertl 55.4% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 90.5%
Defensive zone
Evans 81.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 63.2%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 71.0%
71.0%
29.0%
Evans
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Evans
Hertl
Last 7: Evans 4-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Evans
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
54.1% (717)
+0.3%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
61.9% (210)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
58.1% (31)
-10.0%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Evans shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Evans
Hertl
Home
55.1% (541)
58.1% (492)
Away
50.8% (581)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Evans
Hertl
P1
51.8%
57.1%
P2
53.3%
54.0%
P3
53.8%
56.6%
OT
38.5%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.1%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 18:53 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 09:11 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 14:09 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 19:28 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 06:15 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 13:05 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 12:55 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |