Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +11.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Guentzel wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 47.5% vs Tavares 57.2% (-11.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 79.4%
Defensive zone
Guentzel 72.1%
Neutral zone
Guentzel 80.5%
Result
Jake Guentzel favored at 77.5%
77.5%
22.5%
Guentzel
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
6
(6 meetings)
0
6
Guentzel
Tavares
Last 6: Guentzel 0-6 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Guentzel
Tavares
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
2
Guentzel
Tavares
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
3
Guentzel
Tavares
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (194)
58.0% (914)
-8.5%
Power Play
42.2% (109)
57.0% (235)
-14.8%
Penalty Kill
45.8% (24)
57.9% (19)
-12.1%
On power play, Tavares has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Guentzel is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (215).
Guentzel shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Tavares
Home
48.8% (166)
57.8% (614)
Away
44.7% (161)
57.8% (554)
By Period
Guentzel
Tavares
P1
47.7%
58.0%
P2
48.8%
56.9%
P3
43.8%
58.4%
OT
42.9%
57.7%
Final 5 min
49.2%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
48.0%▲
43.5%
46.8%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 06:50 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 13:48 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 04:21 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 00:48 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 19:09 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 06:06 | Neutral | John Tavares |