Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +12.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 46.9% vs Tavares 57.7% (-12.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 73.9%
Defensive zone
Tavares 61.9%
Neutral zone
Guentzel 63.2%
Result
Jake Guentzel favored at 59.1%
59.1%
40.9%
Guentzel
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Guentzel
Tavares
Last 8: Guentzel 3-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Guentzel
Tavares
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Guentzel
Tavares
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Guentzel
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (256)
57.7% (998)
-11.6%
Power Play
47.5% (122)
60.5% (271)
-13.0%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
56.4% (39)
-39.7%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +39.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Guentzel is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (248).
Guentzel shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Tavares
Home
49.3% (201)
59.7% (610)
Away
42.6% (183)
57.0% (698)
By Period
Guentzel
Tavares
P1
49.6%
57.2%
P2
45.6%
58.5%
P3
41.6%
59.4%
OT
100.0%
46.7%
Final 5 min
44.7%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.1%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | 3 | 01:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 2 | 18:40 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 2 | 15:56 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 2 | 07:19 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 12:58 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 07:13 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 06:29 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 01:45 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |