Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Guentzel wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 46.3% vs Tavares 54.4% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 13-5 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Guentzel 87.5%
Defensive zone
Guentzel 85.0%
Neutral zone
Guentzel 85.5%
Result
Jake Guentzel favored at 86.0%
86.0%
14.0%
Guentzel
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
13
(18 meetings)
5
13
Guentzel
Tavares
Last 10: Guentzel 1-9 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
4
Guentzel
Tavares
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
5
Guentzel
Tavares
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
4
Guentzel
Tavares
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (685)
54.0% (16,108)
-7.7%
Power Play
45.7% (291)
56.5% (4,283)
-10.8%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (42)
50.6% (620)
-7.7%
On power play, Tavares has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Guentzel is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (638).
Guentzel shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Tavares
Home
48.3% (544)
56.1% (10,503)
Away
43.2% (474)
52.7% (10,537)
By Period
Guentzel
Tavares
P1
47.8%
55.0%
P2
45.2%
54.1%
P3
45.3%
54.1%
OT
33.3%
55.9%
Final 5 min
42.5%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.0%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 06:50 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 13:48 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 04:21 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 00:48 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 19:09 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 06:06 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 3 | 01:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 2 | 18:40 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 2 | 15:56 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 2 | 07:19 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 12:58 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 07:13 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 06:29 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 01:45 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 01:10 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 2 | 11:01 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 1 | 16:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 2 | 03:50 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |