Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Guentzel wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 47.4% vs Staal 54.6% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 73.8%
Defensive zone
Staal 81.5%
Neutral zone
Staal 52.5%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 60.4%
39.6%
60.4%
Guentzel
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Guentzel
Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
1
Guentzel
Staal
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Guentzel
Staal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Guentzel
1
0
Guentzel
Staal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (200)
56.1% (955)
-7.1%
Power Play
42.3% (111)
66.9% (142)
-24.6%
Penalty Kill
45.8% (24)
43.0% (242)
+2.8%
On power play, Staal has a +24.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Guentzel is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (220).
Guentzel shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Staal
Home
48.8% (166)
55.4% (663)
Away
44.4% (169)
54.4% (676)
By Period
Guentzel
Staal
P1
46.7%
55.1%
P2
48.5%
54.7%
P3
44.3%
53.9%
OT
42.9%
70.0%
Final 5 min
48.4%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.6%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 06:43 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 15:33 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 14:07 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 11:27 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |