Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Guentzel wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 46.3% vs Staal 55.3% (-9.3%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Guentzel 90.9%
Defensive zone
Staal 71.4%
Neutral zone
Guentzel 75.2%
Result
Jake Guentzel favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Guentzel
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Guentzel
Staal
Last 10: Guentzel 3-7 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Guentzel
Staal
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
6
Guentzel
Staal
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Guentzel
2
1
Guentzel
Staal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (685)
55.9% (14,620)
-9.6%
Power Play
45.7% (291)
62.7% (1,745)
-17.0%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (42)
48.0% (2,896)
-5.1%
On power play, Staal has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Guentzel is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (638).
Guentzel shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,773).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Staal
Home
48.3% (544)
56.4% (9,663)
Away
43.2% (474)
54.3% (9,663)
By Period
Guentzel
Staal
P1
47.8%
55.2%
P2
45.2%
55.9%
P3
45.3%
54.9%
OT
33.3%
56.2%
Final 5 min
42.5%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.0%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 06:43 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 15:33 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 14:07 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 11:27 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 01:41 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 02:31 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 15:22 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 07:18 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 03:57 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 12:09 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 04:48 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 1 | 11:27 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 4, 2018 | 1 | 04:35 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 2 | 17:44 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |