Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 46.9% vs Staal 54.2% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 90.9%
Defensive zone
Staal 60.1%
Neutral zone
Guentzel 70.0%
Result
Jake Guentzel favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Guentzel
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Guentzel
Staal
Last 8: Guentzel 2-6 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Guentzel
Staal
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
5
Guentzel
Staal
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Guentzel
1
0
Guentzel
Staal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (256)
57.0% (1,017)
-10.9%
Power Play
47.5% (122)
57.7% (26)
-10.2%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
45.1% (286)
-28.4%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +28.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Guentzel is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (248).
Guentzel shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (988).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Staal
Home
49.3% (201)
54.3% (667)
Away
42.6% (183)
54.7% (662)
By Period
Guentzel
Staal
P1
49.6%
56.2%
P2
45.6%
57.0%
P3
41.6%
49.7%
OT
100.0%
68.4%
Final 5 min
44.7%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.1%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 01:41 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 02:31 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 15:22 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 07:18 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 03:57 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 12:09 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 04:48 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 1 | 11:27 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |