Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Guentzel wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 47.4% vs McLeod 47.8% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
McLeod leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Guentzel 80.8%
Defensive zone
McLeod 73.1%
Neutral zone
Guentzel 57.7%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
Guentzel
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
11
(16 meetings)
5
11
Guentzel
McLeod
Last 10: Guentzel 2-8 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
2
Guentzel
McLeod
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
6
Guentzel
McLeod
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Guentzel
McLeod
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (200)
49.2% (796)
-0.2%
Power Play
42.3% (111)
44.8% (87)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
45.8% (24)
43.3% (263)
+2.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Guentzel is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (220).
Guentzel shoots left. McLeod is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (748).
Home / Away
Guentzel
McLeod
Home
48.8% (166)
49.2% (575)
Away
44.4% (169)
45.9% (571)
By Period
Guentzel
McLeod
P1
46.7%
52.8%
P2
48.5%
45.1%
P3
44.3%
45.6%
OT
42.9%
35.7%
Final 5 min
48.4%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.6%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 11:07 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 10:56 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 16:41 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 01:11 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 10:44 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 3, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 11:20 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 07:33 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 03:47 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:31 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:23 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 03:27 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:54 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 13:44 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 01:30 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 01:10 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |